Robert Y. Shapiro is the Wallace S. Sayre Professor of Government and International and Public Affairs at Columbia University.
The Editorial Board of Mero Tribune talks with Robert Y. Shapiro about what another Trump presidency would look like:
What will Trump’s presidency mean for the Russia-Ukraine war?
It is unclear at this point what Trump will mean for this war. It has interjected uncertainty and has evidently gotten Ukraine to consider what would be an acceptable settlement. The change is that short of winning the war, Ukraine will seek some NATO country or US guarantee of its security. Trump’s presidency also may embolden Putin.
Do you think Trump’s victory has altered the international environment?
It has created uncertainty and raises questions about the future of American leadership internationally. There is no indication yet that Trump has thought any of this out substantially. We do not know how much he understands the implications of what has happened in Syria. Trump’s election is good news for Israel, which now has further freedom in what it does in Gaza, the West Bank, and now visibly in attacking the Syrian military assets.
What does Trump’s return to the White House mean for NATO, Europe?
This has led Europe to dealing with what it might have to do on its own in addition to meeting the 2% military spending requirement.
In your opinion, how far can Trump go?
He will likely be constrained by divisions among Republicans and his base of supporters, who oppose the US becoming more isolationist. Also, Trump is sensitive to his doing anything that might make the US and him being seen as a “loser”. He was spared from being President when the Taliban took full control of Afghanistan, which might not have been the debacle that it was but it was likely the US would still be seen globally as failing there.
Why do you think America made Trump great again?
It was purely due to the perceived poor performance of the Biden administration and how it indicated the failure of American institutions and policymaking processes – at least to the point that voters felt that Trump could do better or that they preferred to take the risk that Trump could do better. He may appear to do better as the policies of the Biden administration start showing more visibly their positive effects on the economy and the US’s economic capability. Trump will, of course, claim credit for anything positive that happens. How much he can do to improve things beyond that, we will have to see.
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